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Bilang isa sa mga bansang may pinakamaraming bagyo sa mundo, mayroon tayong 45 taon ng datos ng tropical cyclones (TC) o bagyo sa Pilipinas na pwedeng suriin at makakuha ng mahahalagang kaalaman tungkol sa pag-uugali ng mga bagyo habang papalapit at tumama o mag-landfall sa bansa.

Pinag-aralan nina Dr. Bernard Alan Racoma at Dr. Gerry Bagtasa ng UP Diliman College of Science – Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM) ang 372 TCs na nag-landfall mula 1979 hanggang 2024. Natukoy nila ang mga pattern na nagpapakita ng mga operasyonal na hamon at ng pangangailangan para sa mas mahusay na paghahanda.

“Mas malalakas pero mabagal ang mga bagyong tumatama sa hilagang bahagi ng bansa. Ang mga bagyo naman sa timog ay mabilis na sa simula at patuloy pa ang rapid acceleration habang papalapit,” paliwanag ni Dr. Racoma. “May implikasyon ito sa uri ng panganib na dala nila.”

Ang mabilis at biglang bumibilis na bagyo sa Visayas at Mindanao ay nagbibigay ng mas kaunting oras para makapaghanda ang mga komunidad. Samantala, ang mas malakas ngunit mabagal na bagyo sa Luzon ay mas nagdudulot ng matagalang pagbaha at landslide.

Bagama’t madalas manatili ang TCs sa loob ng Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) nang ilang araw, natuklasan ng mga meteorologist na maikli lamang ang direktang pagdaan ng mga ito sa mismong baybayin ng Pilipinas—karaniwang 21 oras bago tuluyang pumasok sa lupa o lumihis.

“Base sa geometry o hugis, medyo balingkinitan ang Pilipinas: mas pahaba ang bansa sa direksyong hilaga-timog kaysa silangan-kanluran. Dahil karaniwang kumikilos ang TCs mula silangan papuntang kanluran, mas mabilis nilang nalalampasan ang mas maikling path na ito,” paliwanag ni Dr. Racoma. “Isa pang maaaring paliwanag kung bakit maikli lang ang paglagi ng mga bagyo sa baybayin ay ang pagkawala o paglayo ng bagyo ng pinagkukunan nito ng enerhiya—ang maligamgam na dagat. Kumukuha ng lakas ang bagyo mula sa dagat, at hindi nila gusto ang manatili sa lupa.”

Binibigyang-diin ng mga meteorologist na ang pag-unawa sa oras at pagbabago sa lakas ng mga bagyo ay susi sa pagbabawas ng pinsala. Iminumungkahi nilang seryosohin ang anumang bagyong umuusbong at bantayan agad kapag pumasok o nabuo sa loob ng PAR. “Napakabilis ng rapid intensification—karaniwang nangyayari sa loob ng 24 oras. Hindi pa natin ito lubos na nauunawaan; kahit mahihinang bagyo ay puwedeng biglang lumakas. Dapat iwasan nating hintayin pang lumakas ang bagyo bago maghanda. Kalahati ng bagyong pumapasok o nabubuo sa PAR ay tumatama sa lupa, at kadalasan dito nagaganap ang rapid intensification,” paalala ni Dr. Racoma.

Ang pag-aaral na “Characteristics and Near-Landfall Behavior of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Philippines (1979–2024)” ay inilathala sa Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, isang journal na nakatuon sa pagmo-monitor, pag-forecast, at pananaliksik ukol sa tropical cyclones at ang kanilang epekto sa disaster risk reduction. Sinuportahan ang pag-aaral ng UPD Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Development at DOST–PCIEERD.

References:

Racoma, B. A., & Bagtasa, G. (2025). Characteristics and near-landfall behavior of tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines (1979–2024). Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.11.004

An analysis of 45 years’ worth of Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) data reveals insights into how storms behave as they approach and make landfall in the country—considered as one of the world’s most cyclone-prone regions.

Drs. Bernard Alan Racoma and Gerry Bagtasa of the University of the Philippines – Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM) examined 372 landfalling TCs from 1979 to 2024 and showed patterns that highlight operational challenges and the need for better preparedness.

“Storms that hit the northern part of the country tend to be stronger but slower moving. Southern storms tend to be faster and accelerate more rapidly,” Dr. Racoma explained in an interview. “This has implications on the kinds of hazards these storms may bring.”

Fast-moving and rapidly accelerating storms in the Visayas and Mindanao give communities limited time to prepare, whereas the stronger yet slower-moving storms affecting Luzon heighten the risk of prolonged flooding and landslides.

Although TCs often stay inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for several days, the meteorologists found that their direct presence along the Philippine coasts is brief—averaging only 21 hours before moving inland or away.

“In terms of geometry, medyo balingkinitan ang Pilipinas: mas pahaba ang bansa north-south, kumpara sa east-west. Since TCs usually move from east to west, they tend to cross this shorter path faster,” Dr. Racoma said, pointing out the contributing factors. “Another possible explanation is because of the loss of the fuel source—the warm ocean. TCs draw their energy from the sea, and they typically don’t like staying over land.”

The meteorologists emphasize that understanding both the timing and intensity evolution of the storms is key to reducing disaster risk. They recommend that communities treat all developing storms seriously, and to monitor when TCs enter or form within PAR. “Rapid intensification occurs very fast—typically within 24 hours. We don’t yet fully understand it; even weak storms can intensify quickly. We should avoid waiting for a storm to intensify before preparing. Half of TCs that form or enter the PAR make landfall, and usually rapid intensification occurs within this region,” Dr. Racoma noted.

“Characteristics and Near-Landfall Behavior of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Philippines (1979–2024)” was published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, a journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, research, and their related impacts on disaster risk reduction. The study was supported by the UPD Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Development and the Department of Science and Technology – Philippine Council for Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology Research and Development.

References:

Racoma, B. A., & Bagtasa, G. (2025). Characteristics and near-landfall behavior of tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines (1979–2024). Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.11.004

Naidokumento ng mga marine researcher ang ilang bagong naitalang box jellyfish species sa Pilipinas, na nagdudulot ng mahalagang kontribusyon sa lumalaking database ng marine biodiversity ng bansa. Ang grupo ng mga mananaliksik ay binubuo nina Dr. Sheldon Rey Boco at Christine Gloria Grace Capidos ng The Philippine Jellyfish Stings Project; Russel Christine Corcino at Dr. Lemnuel Aragones ng Unibersidad ng Pilipinas – Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM); Dr. Phuping Sucharitakul ng Batavia Coast Maritime Institute sa Western Australia; Ram Yoro ng RY Photography; Dennis Corpuz ng Anilao Critters Studio; at Scott Tuason ng Squires Sports Philippines.

“Bakit pa ba sila dapat pag-aralan? May tatlong dahilan,” sabi ni Dr. Boco. “Una, bahagi sila ng marine food chain, at ang kanilang presensya o kawalan ay maaaring magpahiwatig ng tunay na kalagayan ng mga marine ecosystem. Pangalawa, kumakain sila ng mas maliliit na nilalang at pagkain naman sila ng mga mas malalaking nilalang, na tumutulong na pagpapanatili ng kaayusan sa lahat. At ikatlo, maraming carybdeid ang may potent venom na maaaring magpadala sa ospital ang sinumang matamaan. Ang pagtuklas kung paano gumagana ang venom ay maaaring makatulong sa paglapat ng sapat na gamot at makaligtas ng buhay balang araw.”

Pinagsama ng grupo ang in situ (on-site) na mga obserbasyon, gamit ang high-resolution na underwater photography at videography, kasama ng citizen science initiatives na na-verify sa pamamagitan ng digital authentication. Lalong pinaigting ng mga kontribusyon mula sa mga citizen scientist ang dokumentasyon ng grupo sa mga bagong naitalang box jellyfish species.

Kabilang sa mga kapansin-pansing natuklasan ay ang mga unang tala sa Pilipinas ng Alatina alata, Carybdea cuboides, Malo sp., at Morbakka virulenta. Kinumpirma rin ng mga mananaliksik ang mga bagong rekord para sa Copula sivickisi at Malo filipina. Ang mga bagong tuklas na ito ay nagpapahusay sa ating pag-unawa sa kung saan matatagpuan ang carybdeid box jellyfish—marami sa mga ito ay maaaring maging sanhi ng Irukandji syndrome—at kung gaano kalawak ang kanilang distribution.

“Lubhang napakahirap ng pag-aaral ng mga carybdeid sa kanilang natural habitat, higit sa lahat dahil ang mga dikyang ito ay nakatira sa mga lugar na mahirap maabot. Karamihan sa mga species, tulad ng Philippine carybdeid Copula sivickisi, ay naninirahan malayo sa pampang nang hindi bababa sa 100 metro mula sa baybayin at sa lalim na 20 hanggang 30 metro,“ paliwanag ni Dr. Boco. Nakatuon ang grupo sa pagmamasid sa adult medusa stage—ang nakikitang anyo ng mga dikya.

Upang obserbahan at idokumento ang medusae sa pamamagitan ng in situ na mga obserbasyon gamit ang mga larawan at video na may mataas na resolution, nagsagawa ang mga marine researcher ng ilang blackwater dives sa open water mula 2017 hanggang 2021 at noong 2024. Nangangailangan ang night diving ng espesyal na scuba certification at maingat na paghahanda para sa bawat biyahe. Bago ang bawat pagsisid, nagplano sa logistics ang grupo, nagsuri ng panahon at mga agos ng tubig, nagkalkula ng supply ng hangin, at nagsuri ng mga safety protocol upang matiyak ang kaligtasan ng lahat ng sangkot.

“Nangalap din kami ng mga larawan at video mula sa mga recreational diver sa pamamagitan ng citizen science. Ang diskarte na ito ay nagdulot ng isang panibagong hamon: ang pagpapatunay na tunay ang mga imahe. Dahil sa artificial intelligence na ngayon ay may kakayahang lumikha ng mga mukhang totoo pero pekeng larawan ng dikya, itinuring namin ang bawat submission bilang ebidensya sa isang imbestigasyion,” dagdag ni Dr. Boco. Sinuri ng team ang metadata, pag-iilaw, kundisyon ng tubig, at mga anatomical detail sa mga larawan at video upang kumpirmahin ang pagiging tunay ng mga larawan. Binanggit ni Dr. Boco na ang pag-uuri ng mga totoong rekord mula sa mga potential forgery ay nangangailangan ng pasensya at oras, ngunit ang accuracy ay mahalaga para sa paggawa ng reliable research findings.

Marine researchers have documented several newly recorded box jellyfish species in the Philippines, marking a vital contribution to the country’s growing database of marine biodiversity. The team is composed of Dr. Sheldon Rey Boco and Christine Gloria Grace Capidos of The Philippine Jellyfish Stings Project; Russel Christine Corcino and Dr. Lemnuel Aragones of the University of the Philippines – Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM); Dr. Phuping Sucharitakul of the Batavia Coast Maritime Institute in Western Australia; Ram Yoro of RY Photography; Dennis Corpuz of Anilao Critters Studio; and Scott Tuason of Squires Sports Philippines.

“Why bother studying them? Three reasons,” Dr. Boco said. “They’re part of the marine food chain and their presence or absence can indicate the condition of marine ecosystems. They eat smaller creatures and are food for bigger ones, helping keep everything in check. And many carybdeids have venom strong enough to send people to the hospital. Figuring out how that venom works could lead to better treatments and save lives.”

The team combined in situ (on-site) observations, using high-resolution underwater photography and videography, with citizen science initiatives that were verified through digital authentication. Verified contributions from citizen scientists strengthened the team’s documentation of newly recorded box jellyfish species.

Among the notable findings are the first Philippine records of Alatina alata, Carybdea cuboides, Malo sp., and Morbakka virulenta. The researchers also confirmed new records for Copula sivickisi and Malo filipina. These discoveries enhance our understanding of where carybdeid box jellyfish—many of which can potentially cause Irukandji syndrome—occur and how widely they are distributed.

“Studying carybdeids in their natural habitat proved extremely challenging, largely because these jellyfish live in hard-to-reach places. Most species, except for a few, like the Philippine carybdeid Copula sivickisi, dwell in offshore waters at least 100 meters from shore and in depths of 20 to 30 meters,” Dr. Boco explained. The team focused on observing the adult medusa stage—the jellyfish’s visible swimming form.

To observe and document the medusae through in situ observations using high-resolution photos and videos, the marine researchers conducted several blackwater dives over open water from 2017 to 2021 and in 2024. Night diving requires specialized scuba certification and careful preparation for each trip. Before each dive, the team planned logistics, checked weather and currents, calculated air supply, and reviewed safety protocols to ensure the safety of everyone involved.

“We also gathered photos and videos from recreational divers through citizen science. This approach introduced a new hurdle: proving the images were genuine. With artificial intelligence now capable of creating convincing fake jellyfish pictures, we treated each submission like evidence in an investigation,” Dr. Boco added. The team examined metadata, lighting, water conditions, and anatomical details in the photos and videos to confirm authenticity. Dr. Boco mentioned that sorting real records from potential forgeries required patience and time, but accuracy was essential for producing reliable research findings.