For its 43rd anniversary, the University of the Philippines – Diliman College of Science (UPD-CS), through its Science and Society Program (SSP), held a public forum titled “PAX SILICA: Progress for Whom?” on October 19, 2026. UP experts from various fields shared their perspectives on the initiative, examining its potential implications for the Philippines and helping onsite and online attendees better understand what Pax Silica could mean for the country.

“For the Philippines, participation in this initiative raises important questions,” UPD-CS Associate Dean Leilani Dacones said. “What opportunities might it bring to our science and technology sectors? How might it affect our industries, research institutions, and workforce? And perhaps most importantly, who stands to benefit from these developments, and what challenges or trade-offs should we consider?”

Pax Silica and the Challenge of Sustainable Mining

In her talk, UP School of Economics Professor Dr. Cielo Magno examined Pax Silica in the context of global competition over critical minerals. She discussed how public discourse shifted from plans to establish data centers in Clark, Pampanga, which raised concerns about water and energy use, to mining and downstream processing.

Dr. Magno noted the country’s position in the global nickel industry, noting that the Philippines and Indonesia together account for more than 70% of global nickel production. However, much of the nickel produced in both countries goes to China for processing.

“Of the 20 critical minerals needed for the energy transition, China also controls the processing of 19,” she added. “Against this backdrop, we can better understand the United States’ interest in the Philippines.”

Dr. Magno said that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and the Philippines was part of the broader Pax Silica package. Although the memorandum has not yet been made public, she said she learned about it from contacts at the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). According to the information she received, the agreement would reportedly give the United States first access to mining areas in the Philippines.

“I have been discussing mining for over a decade, and the conversation about downstream processing has gained momentum,” she explained. “How do we maximize this opportunity, and how will we, as a country, benefit?”

Dr. Magno discussed the concept of the “resource curse,” in which countries rich in natural resources fail to achieve corresponding economic development. She explained that while several factors contribute to this phenomenon, including macroeconomic conditions, poor governance remains a major concern. Mineral extraction alone does not guarantee development. The Philippine government must ensure fair compensation for the extraction of mineral resources, long-term benefits for future generations, and accountability for the social and environmental costs of mining.

“The Philippine government must also have a comprehensive sustainable development plan for mining communities. Mining is highly mechanized and technical, so it does not necessarily create a significant number of jobs. Mining revenues should therefore be used to support other industries independent of mining, ensuring that communities have alternative sources of livelihood when mining operations end,” Dr. Magno added.

Pax Silica and the Challenge of Water Supply

During her talk, Dr. Jelaine Gan of the UPD-CS Institute of Biology (IB) explained that, under the Pax Silica initiative, the Philippines’ strengths lie in its critical minerals, talent, and strategic location. She interpreted this as referring to the country’s mineral resources, workforce—including its relatively low-cost labor—and geographic position in the Philippine archipelago.

“The proposed site for Pax Silica covers approximately 3.3 times the area of UP Diliman,” she said. “Allocating land for one purpose means displacing other uses. This land is used for agriculture by Indigenous communities.”

Dr. Gan showed an aerial view of the proposed site for Pax Silica, which consists of agricultural fields, small patches of forest, and built-up areas. Drawing on her background in landscape ecology, she explained that even areas that appear barren or no longer support wildlife may still harbor important biodiversity.

Filipinos need to study the species and ecosystems present in the area and assess what could be affected, rather than overlook the site’s environmental and biodiversity value. Dr. Gan noted that the Philippines is one of the world’s megadiverse countries, with many species found nowhere else. Destroying this ecosystem, she warned, could have negative consequences for the country’s biodiversity.

The proposed site is also bordered by a river system. “I think of Pax Silica as a brain—a processing center. Like the brain, it needs resources to function, including water supplied by this river system. When the brain is damaged, it can experience imbalances and release toxins that circulate throughout the body and affect other areas. Similarly, the river system may serve not only as a source of water for the facility but also as a potential pathway for its waste,” Dr. Gan said.

According to the Bases Conversion and Development Authority, the proposed site would require 65 to 90 million liters of water per day. To put this into perspective, Dr. Gan said this is equivalent to approximately 26 to 36 Olympic-sized swimming pools daily. At the maximum projected consumption, this would amount to more than 13,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools annually. 

Diverting the projected water supply to Pax Silica would be equivalent to the total residential water needs of either Angeles City or Baguio City. While proponents have said the facility would use surface water from the Bangot, O’Donnell, and Abacan rivers instead of groundwater, this could require dams or reservoirs. She also questioned the feasibility of desalination, given Tarlac’s distance from the coast and the need to transport seawater inland and dispose of the resulting brine. “So it doesn’t make sense, at least for me,” she said.

Pax Silica and the Pressure to Choose Sides

Professor Herman Joseph Kraft of the UPD College of Social Sciences and Philosophy – Department of Political Science drew on the Greek epic The Odyssey to frame the Philippines’ foreign policy choices amid shifting international dynamics. He referred to Odysseus’ dilemma of navigating between two sea monsters, Scylla and Charybdis. 

Guided by Circe, Odysseus had to choose between passing near Scylla, which would cost him six crew members, or risking the destruction of his entire ship and crew by passing near Charybdis. This dilemma illustrates the idea of choosing between two evils, echoing the difficult choices the Philippines faces as it considers Pax Silica.

“Is there no way of avoiding Charybdis while keeping Scylla at bay?” Kraft asked, drawing a parallel to the need to reduce the country’s vulnerabilities and avoid choices that leave it with limited options. This dilemma is particularly relevant as the international system undergoes changes beyond the Philippines’ control. As neither a great power nor a major international player, the Philippines must find ways to navigate these developments while advancing and protecting its own interests.

Kraft noted that the Philippines has consistently favored closer ties with the United States over China, even as Chinese influence grows across Southeast Asia. He connected this preference to the ongoing competition between the two powers, which he said has raised concerns about countries being forced to choose sides. The Philippines’ role in manufacturing and critical mineral processing makes the Pax Silica initiative relevant to the broader US-China competition for global dominance.

China has launched its own initiative, the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, underscoring the competition between the two powers and the pressure on countries to choose sides. The Philippines is caught in this rivalry, particularly because of its disputes with China in the West Philippine Sea and its alliance with the United States. However, Kraft questioned whether the country must choose between the two powers, emphasizing the need to strengthen its position and protect its interests.

Pax Silica and the Need for PH Industrialization

Dr. Giovanni Tapang of the UPD-CS National Institute of Physics (NIP) questioned who would benefit from the Philippines’ role in supplying critical minerals under Pax Silica. He argued that the United States identifies the minerals it needs, while the Philippines is expected to extract and process them using its land, labor, electricity, and water—and shoulder the resulting environmental costs. Dr. Tapang also noted that the United States’ critical minerals list includes copper and nickel, both of which are found in the Philippines.

“Industrialization is not about having industries or factories in the country. Having factories here or producing electronic chips does not necessarily mean that we produce the electronic products we need. These factories may be located here, but their production is not necessarily intended for us. That has been the story of our electronics industry for the past 50 years. These products are largely made for other countries rather than being made available and affordable to Filipinos,” he said.

Dr. Tapang asked whether the factories and equipment planned under Pax Silica would help the Philippines develop its own industries or primarily serve the production needs of other countries, especially the United States. He questioned what benefits the country would gain in return for providing the minerals, workforce, and training needed for these operations.

“If we are not building AI data centers or mineral processing facilities, but simply attracting more electronics companies, we must consider the experiences of Filipino workers in these industries. They face difficult working conditions, low wages, and restrictions on their ability to organize into unions. Are these the kinds of jobs we want to create? We should be creating opportunities for our engineers, scientists, and other skilled workers,” he said. 

However, Dr. Tapang also noted that opportunities for Filipino skilled workers could remain limited if foreign companies establish operations primarily to meet their own needs rather than those of the country.